US Ecommerce Growth Rate (2018–2027)
In 2022, ecommerce sales in the United States surpassed $1 trillion for the first time. The latest numbers published by the government suggest 2023 will be yet another record-breaking year. As it stands, online purchases in the first two quarters of the year have generated $549.4 billion in sales, 7.5% more than the previous year.
These figures support the growing trend of online shopping, as the number of digital buyers in the US increases year after year. For a better understanding of how quickly sales from online shopping are rising, we take an in-depth look at US ecommerce growth rates.
US ecommerce growth rate: 2018–2024
Results from a recent analysis show that the US ecommerce growth rate is expected to be 10.5% in 2024, as sales from online transactions rise from $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion. This corresponds to a 16.6% market share of retail sales, which means that $1 out of every $6 spent on retail goods in 2024 will be done online.
The US ecommerce growth forecast for 2024 marks an acceleration over previous years’ numbers and is the first time online sales are set to grow by double digits in three years.
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In 2018, US ecommerce sales grew by 13.2%, to over half a trillion dollars. This accelerated to 15.1% in 2019, before a 36.7% surge in 2020 took online sales to over $800 billion. In 2021, the ecommerce growth rate fell by more than half, to 17.3%. US ecommerce growth in 2022 decreased further, to 8.5%, and recovered slightly the following year, to 9.3%.
US ecommerce growth projections: 2025–2027
Industry analysts expect US ecommerce sales growth to continue every year until at least 2027 and at faster rates than in recent years. In 2025, online sales are forecast to rise by 10.8%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from 2024.
This is set to accelerate to 11% and 11.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. From 2018 to 2027, US ecommerce sales are expected to rise at an average annual growth rate of 14.4%. Over the same period, experts predict ecommerce penetration will double, rising from 9.9% to 20.6%. Meanwhile, total sales are projected to more than triple, from $520 billion to $1.7 trillion.